• Policy control remains stable, the property market may continue to cool next year
  • / 发布时间:2019-12-08 / 浏览: 77次 / Information Type: Hot Concern / Release Time: 2019-12-08 / Browse: 77 Times /

Since the beginning of this year, the property market regulation has continued the high-frequency strict mode.

Although the overall regulation and control policy remained stable, the real estate industry's supply and demand indicators remained resilient, and the cooling rate was far less than expected by the market. The overall trend was stable and volatile. It is foreseeable that the possibility of a sharp rise in housing prices across the country in 2020 is unlikely. The real estate finance will be tightened or will be normalized. In the short term, the adjustment trend of the property market cooling will continue, and the industry may continue to cool. The accumulated risks may be gradually exposed.

Investment in real estate development will continue to decline

At the policy level, the policy side of the real estate market has not changed. Since the second half of 2018, the real estate regulation and control policy has continued to increase, and the general tone of "housing to live without speculation" has remained the same, and it remains strong in the face of increasing economic downward pressure. It is expected that the regulation and control in 2020 will continue to be "stable", but the policy of the city will continue. At the financial level, under the strict control of policies, the sales of commercial housing have been sluggish, and the pace of developers in accelerating the launch of funds to withdraw funds will also be affected. At the same time, financing channels such as real estate credit, trusts and foreign debts have all contracted, which will put developers to the test of funds. At the level of investment composition, the growth momentum is insufficient. Although Jian'an Investment is still resilient, it is difficult to continue to accelerate the start of construction in the absence of developer willingness and ability to invest and limited market demand. However, the transformation of old urban communities, rigid demand for urbanization, low inventory levels, and local government reliance on land transfer income mean that real estate investment is still an important support for the economy, and there will not be a cliff-like decline. It is expected that real estate development investment will decline steadily in 2020, increasing by about 5% throughout the year.

Commercial housing inventory will gradually rise

Supply and demand and market expectations are also key factors affecting the direction of the property market. As of the end of October 2019, the area of commercial residential buildings for sale nationwide had fallen to the level of 2012. Even if the statistic does not include uncompleted floor space for sale, it also represents a low level of commodity housing inventory in the past two years. It is worth noting that the growth rate of newly started commercial housing in the past two years is far greater than the sales area of commercial housing, which will definitely bring some inventory pressure in the future. On the one hand, due to the reduction of the project's elimination rate, a large number of new launch projects will continue to form new inventory; on the other hand, as the projects started in the past two years enter the centralized completion period, the uncompleted saleable area will gradually be converted into The completed area for sale can also be gradually reflected in statistics. Looking forward to 2020, with the rebound of commodity housing inventory and the continued cooling and adjustment of property market sales, the relationship between market supply and demand will further reverse.

In addition, 2020 is the "final year" of shed reform. Under the premise of 15 million sets of targets in three years, it is expected that the shed reform plan will nearly double in 2020, and the physical resettlement investment may exceed 1 trillion yuan. Investment growth.

Industry liquidity control continues

As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, China's real estate loan balance was approximately 43.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 4.4 percentage points lower than the 2018 full year level. Real estate loans accounted for approximately 28.9% of various RMB loan balances, compared with the end of 2018. Increase by 0.5 percentage points. In terms of incremental growth, new real estate loans in the first three quarters of 2019 were approximately 4.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.2% year-on-year, accounting for 33.8% of the newly added yuan, which was a decrease of 6.5 percentage points from the level of 2018. From the perspective of the release structure, the current liquidity control of the real estate industry focuses on total volume control and strict investigation of violations. The demand side is to meet the first set of residents and improve the basic residential properties of home purchase. In the downturn and the shift of economic structure, the asset allocation of banks has continued to favor mortgage loans, and the investment in the short term is relatively "rigid." Looking ahead, it is expected that the credit contraction pressure in the real estate industry will mainly be concentrated on the supply side, and the probability of a sharp contraction in demand-side mortgages is low. The real estate loan balance at the end of 2020 is expected to be approximately 49.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate may be slightly lower than the growth rate of various RMB loan balances in 2020.

Real estate industry will accelerate reshuffle

In 2019, under the grim situation of cooling down in the property market and tightening of financing supervision, the development and operation and capital chain of development enterprises are under tremendous pressure, and even the performance growth of the top 100 real estate companies has obviously slowed down. Kerer's monitoring data show that from January to October 2019, the cumulative equity sales of TOP100 real estate companies increased by only 5% year-on-year, slightly better than the industry average, but far lower than the industry growth rate in the same period last year. However, the sales concentration of leading real estate companies continues to increase, the number of 100 billion-level real estate companies has increased significantly, and the competitive advantage of large-scale real estate companies is still obvious. Looking forward to 2020, the real estate market will continue to adjust and market competition will further intensify. Depending on their strength and financing advantages, large-scale housing enterprises will continue to integrate resources and expand their scale; small and medium-sized housing enterprises will face greater difficulties. At present, the real estate industry has entered the "Silver Age". Although there are still many structural opportunities, the era of collective "eaten meat" by development companies has passed. Big waves and sands will intensify the reshuffle of the industry, and resource integration and mergers and acquisitions will become the general trend.

Risks to watch for

The first is policy risk. The real estate market is greatly affected by regulatory and credit policies. Since 2019, under the condition of relatively loose monetary environment, real estate regulation has been loosened first and then tightened, with tightness as the mainstay. The property market has shown a steady cooling trend under the policy hedging game. However, unlike the previous year's economic downturn, which actively stimulated the property market, in July, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee proposed for the first time "not to use real estate as a means to stimulate the economy in the short term", reflecting the central government's determination to control house price increases and ensure the stable and healthy development of real estate. The illusion of relaxing real estate regulation has been broken.

The second is market risk. From a long-term perspective, as a macroeconomic weathervane and barometer, China's real estate industry has entered a period of growth and downward gear shifts. From a short-term perspective, the property market regulation is still in a tight cycle, and the real estate market cooling adjustment rate will increase in the future. Large, periodic bottoming will be more obvious. In addition, from the perspective of regulation and control, with the gradual liberalization of the household registration system, major cities are scrambling to introduce a new talent policy. In the future, it is necessary to take special precautions against the risk of real estate bubbles in first- and second-tier hot cities and the risk of falling house prices in third- and fourth-tier cities, especially the latter.

The third is liquidity risk. In the context of tightening property market regulation and expected market decline, whether real estate collateral can be realized quickly is of paramount importance. The realization risk is mainly reflected in the decline in collateral value and the extension of the realization cycle. Judging from the current market situation, the liquidity of real estate is becoming worse. Therefore, banks need to establish and improve a dynamic monitoring mechanism for real estate collateral, promptly release internal warning information, and take effective measures.

Fourth, credit risk. The real estate industry needs a lot of financing in the process of investment, operation and transaction, but the industry with relatively high risk of investment return and market fluctuation. In the case of opaque banking and enterprise information and incomplete supervision, once there are large fluctuations in the real estate market, which leads to poor operation of the development enterprise, incorrect decision-making or broken capital chain, or even insolvency, high-debt development enterprises are very easy to choose. Defaults in turn generate credit risk. In addition, personal credit risk cannot be ignored, and it is mainly concentrated in investment speculative buyers. Speculative buyers often choose to increase leverage to buy a house, and some may also invest in the bond market, the stock market, or even use real estate as collateral for speculation. If a problem occurs in one link, it will easily lead to family bankruptcy and have to "abandon the house and cut off the supply." ".

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