On June 29th, the Shell Research Institute officially released the “Real Estate Market Outlook for the Second Half of 2018”, which comprehensively reviewed the real estate regulation and control policies in the first half of the year and analyzed the performance of the second-hand housing market with the help of the RealData data platform to restore the regulated market with real data. Overview. The report believes that the marginal effect of regulation and control has been weakening since the beginning of this year. After the market has cooled down, the first half of the year has begun to enter a stage of slow recovery. The second-hand housing market has shown a steady and divergent trend. It is expected that the market ’s upward momentum will weaken in the second half of the year.
Stable and diversified secondary market
On the whole, the second-hand housing market under regulation has begun to diverge: Shanghai, which has been thoroughly regulated in the early stage, and Chengdu, which has experienced multiple rounds of overweight, are in the downward channel; cities with relatively loose regulatory policies are supplemented by talent attraction policies. Weakened, the market showed more obvious signs of warming up, such as Chongqing, Changsha, Xi'an, etc .; the city's second-hand housing market with strong regulation and control remained relatively stable, such as Beijing and Tianjin in the recovery period.
In some cities, due to policy factors such as talent attraction, the transaction volume and price have clearly increased. According to the report statistics, the second-hand housing market in Xi'an, Chongqing, Shenyang, Hangzhou and other cities is relatively active. Among them, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in the three cities of Shenyang, Changsha, and Chongqing increased significantly by 67.3% month-on-month. The analysis of the report pointed out that cities with rising volume and prices have favorable characteristics themselves. The policy environment itself is relatively loose, even with stimulus policies, such as talent attraction policies, and there is a certain number of second-hand upside-downs in the market. In the city itself, where the policy is more stringent and has undergone multiple rounds of policy overweight, the second-hand housing market has cooled significantly, with Shanghai and Chengdu being typical.
The Shell Research Institute releases the semi-annual report of the market in the first half of 2018.
From the demand side, the second-hand housing market in Beijing in the first half of the year has just entered the market and improved demand has entered. The market is slowly recovering. However, the adjustment of the housing policy in the school district in April also released the demand for housing exchanges. The driving forces of Chengdu and Chongqing in the same central and western core cities are not the same. Currently, Chengdu's investment demand has been curbed, and Chongqing's market heating is driven by investment to a certain extent. In addition, some cities attracted by the policy of attracting talents have a demand-precedence phenomenon. The report points out that the policy of talent introduction is to bring in external and future demand to the present. Both types of market demand are not sustainable, which will have a profound impact on the market. hurt.
Downward market pressure
The report also analyzes the property market in the second half of the year. From the perspective of capital flow, the factors supporting the upward market are weakening. The first is that the residential mortgage interest rate has maintained an upward trend. In April, the average interest rate of the first home loan rose to 5.56%, and the average interest rate of the second home loan also jumped to 5.91% this month. The cumulative growth rate of M2 from January to April was 8.3%. The cumulative growth rate of social financing scale is 10.5%. The report predicts that the loan interest rate may still rise slowly this year, which will have a significant impact on real estate transactions.
At the same time, corporate-side financing is also being suppressed. According to statistics, from January to April, bank loans fell by 6.1%, and the growth rate of non-bank institutions' loans fell to about 25%. Real estate funds continued to decline. Under deleveraging, corporate-side financing Channels continue to be under pressure, and market activity has further declined.
In addition, the monetization of shanty town reforms is also one of the important driving forces for the real estate market. Or mainly from the local government, and the funds are used exclusively, the willingness of local monetization resettlement may be affected to some extent. The report pointed out that due to the unclear monetization resettlement ratio, it is difficult for the shed reform funds to be further transformed into demand-side direct stimulus.
The gradual reduction of policy dividends such as talent introduction will also drag the market weakly. In the first half of 2018, many “new first-tier cities” introduced talent introduction policies, which pushed the real estate market in the region to a certain extent. However, from the experience of Chengdu, Tianjin and other places, the release of market demand caused by related policies is short-term. In the week of the Haihe Talent Plan release, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Tianjin Chain increased significantly by 283% month-on-month, and then fell week by week. , And it has returned to the level before the release of talent policy, so the stimulus effect on the real estate market similar to the talent introduction policy is declining.
Based on the consideration of the above factors, the report indicates that the downward pressure on the second-hand housing market in the second half of 2018 is slightly greater than the upward driving force, and the overall second-hand housing market has stabilized or slightly declined.
It is reported that the original chain home research institute was renamed as the shell research institute following the release of the shell search room platform in May this year. It is an authoritative research institution focusing on the Internet and the stock market. Relying on the data and housing transaction scenarios of the housing search and chain home trillion-dollar trading platform, the Shell Research Institute began research with data and loyalty to the data, and successively released the "China Real Estate Broker Industry Specification and Development White Paper", "China Internet and Real Estate Broker Industry" In-depth strategic development report, American Broker Survey Report, Rise of Leasing: Meeting the Quality Leasing Life of 300 Million People, Industry Research Reports, White Paper on China's Long-term Leasing Industry, and Circulation is King in the Era of Stock Market Outlook Report , "Research Reports on the Leasing Market", "Thirty Years of Regeneration: Minutes of Real Estate Research in Japan" and other research results. In addition, the Shell Research Institute regularly releases market monitoring reports on a monthly, semi-annual, and annual basis, providing data references for the industry and the public to understand the real estate market trends in a timely manner.